Shipping freight lately? It probably feels like you’re strapped into a rollercoaster — rate hikes, sudden dips, unexpected turns. One quarter you’re scrambling for trucks, the next you’re flooded with quotes. This market volatility in the freight industry is enough to make anyone’s head spin.
It’s chaotic — but it’s not random.
The freight markets move in a cycle. Once you understand it, you can stop reacting and start planning. Let’s break down the trucking cycle and its impact on the truckload market.
The Freight Market Cycle, Explained
Freight doesn’t move in straight lines. It loops through market cycle stages — and every phase brings different pressures for shippers and logistics companies.
Here’s how the trucking cycle plays out:
- Tight Capacity – Too much freight, not enough trucks. Current freight rates spike.
- High Rates – Carriers rush in to capitalize on favorable spot market rates.
- Carrier Surge – Truck supply overshoots demand, affecting carrier capacity.
- Oversupply – Too many trucks, not enough freight. Rates plummet, leading to low freight rates.
- Soft Market – Carriers exit, capacity tightens… and the cycle restarts.
This pattern in the freight markets plays out over months or years — but it’s consistent. Smart shippers don’t fight it. They build strategy with it, using freight forecasting and market intelligence.
What Triggers Market Shifts?
Certain events speed up or slow down the cycle. Understanding these triggers helps you anticipate change — instead of getting blindsided by it.
- Fuel Prices – Surging diesel can push carriers out or lure them in, impacting operational costs.
- Regulations – New rules (like ELD mandates) can tighten carrier capacity overnight.
- Demand Swings – Retail booms, housing shifts, and seasonality change freight volumes and shipping volumes.
- Labor Shortages – Driver availability is often the real bottleneck in the trucking industry.
- Global Disruptions – From pandemics to port strikes, one ripple can shake the whole system, affecting supply and demand.
How Smart Shippers Stay Ahead
Some companies treat freight like a commodity — chasing spot market rates, switching providers, reacting to every wobble in the truckload market.
But the best-performing shippers in the freight industry take a different route:
• Forecast with Flexibility. Use historical data, economic indicators, and scenario planning to guide decisions — not gut feelings. Effective freight forecasting is key.
•Don’t Go It Alone — Leverage 3PL Partnerships. Trying to manage carrier relationships solo can leave you exposed in a tight market. A 3PL partner can streamline your network and safeguard your supply chain.
• Don’t Chase the Bottom. Ultra-low freight rates often mean poor service, missed SLAs, and surprise costs. Cheap freight isn’t free. Understanding why freight rates are low is crucial for long-term strategy.
They don’t just manage freight. They manage risk — and win over the long term by understanding market equilibrium and using market intelligence.
Markets Shift. Strategy Shouldn’t Have To.
You can’t control the freight markets. But you can control how you respond to them.
Build a strategy that bends with the market without breaking. Align your operations with the freight cycle. Invest in the right partnerships before you need them. Consider factors like inventory levels and their impact on freight demand.
When others are reacting, you’ll already be ahead.
Because the best shippers aren’t just along for the ride — they’re steering straight through the curves of the truckload market, using market intelligence to navigate the ups and downs of freight pricing and carrier supply.
